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Indeed, it is argued that once population has reached a level in excess of the earth's long-term capacity to sustain it, even stability and zero growth at that level will lead to future environmental degradation (Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 1990). Fossil fuel consumption accounts for over half the human contribution to the greenhouse effect, chiefly through the emission of carbon dioxide. China and other rapidly developing countries will dominate carbon dioxide output in the 21st century. Fluctuating carbon dioxide levels are then a response to climate variation rather than the cause. be applied to office buildings and finally to residences as well. In Earth’s distant past, it would take between 5,000 to 20,000 years to see the amount of change in carbon dioxide levels that humans have caused in just the last 60 years. This fact has three major implications for research strategy: understanding the human causes is an intrinsically interdisciplinary project; the important human causes of global change are not all global; and comparative studies to specify the contingencies are critically needed (see #2 and #3 below). But other directions of investment, focusing on new manufacturing and expanded energy services such as refrigeration and personal transportation, would be much more energy intensive. Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email. Global warming potential is affected by the different atmospheric lifetimes of greenhouse gases before breakdown, so that the relative importance of gases for global warming depends on the future date to which effects are estimated. It does not account for the fact that noncapitalist societies without private property may perpetuate large-scale environmental abuses, as in the case of the drying of the Aral Sea for irrigation purposes in the Soviet Union (Medvedev, 1990) or the reliance on inefficient coal burning technology in China. Small farms were not taxed on land, large ones could reduce their already low taxes by converting forest to pasture or crops (Binswanger, 1989), and corporations could deduct up to 75 percent of the cost of approved development projects in the Amazon from their federal tax liability (Browder, 1988). Accidental explosions were frequent, and the toxic nature of the gas caused a number of fatalities. 3) Volcanic activity may cause short-term changes in climate eg. For example, the relationships of population, economic development, and government policies to deforestation may be studied by comparing data with the nation-state as the unit of analysis (e.g., Rudel, 1989). For example, human actions that may be proximate causes of irreversible environmental change must be considered important beyond the magnitude of the change they may cause. consumption process. Although portions of the local environment could support intensive land use like that of the wet rice/garden systems of south China and Java, the necessary local density of population with plentiful labor and nearby markets are not present (Moran 1987:75). A useful accounting system for the human causes of global change has a tree structure in which properties of the global environment are linked to the major human activities that alter them, and in which the activities are divided in turn into their constituent parts or influences. ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one. There are tremendous uncertainties in predicting whether these goals can be met, even though Chinese energy use is certainly inefficient enough to allow this much technological improvement. Deforestation favors species that occur only in highly disturbed areas, such as weeds, mosquitoes, and cattle, and that spread disease, compete with native organisms, and change the soil structure (Denevan, 1981). Source: Shine et al. Although the People's Republic of China is only the world's third-largest producer of carbon dioxide (after the United States and the Soviet Union), it is increasing its rate of production faster than any other country (750 million metric tons more in 1988 than in 1980—National Academy of Sciences, 1991a). A key to the future of the forests lies in policy changes that could limit deforestation and extensive land use while increasing food production from existing agricultural areas. The lessons of this story about CFCs and the ozone hole are several. We also outline some of the key unanswered but researchable questions regarding these driving forces. Individuals seeking their short-term self-interest exploit or degrade open-access resources much faster than they would if they acted in the longer-term or collective interest (Dawes, 1980; Edney, 1980; Fox, 1985). Is it a coincidence that, at the time, it was so warm that crocodiles were living within the Arctic circle? Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. More recently, both native American (Posey, 1989; Prance, 1989) and immigrant populations such as the rubber tappers have maintained the forest by a mixed-management strategy that mimics rather than replaces the biologically diverse natural environment (Browder, 1989). Similarly, policies pursued by such federal agencies as the Army Corps of Engineers, the Department of the Interior, and the Atomic Energy Commission have affected environmental quality, even though—or perhaps because—environmental quality was not an issue in their policy deliberations. These contradictory arguments, all plausible, can be weighed only by research that is specific (e.g., which technology, in which society, at what time) and that takes into account the other major social forces that cause or are affected by technological progress. Testing this hypothesis would require research conducted over longer time scales than is common in psychological research. Significantly, the suggestion that CFCs might possibly be damaging, to the ozone layer did not have much effect on uses that were much more central to the industrial economy: food refrigeration, ambient air conditioning, and electronic manufacturing solvents. Finally, although humans might be expected to husband populations of species with economic value, this has not typically been the case on frontiers, as the exploitation of Amazonian rosewood and the American bison illustrate. Different methods may prove useful for different purposes. Inequality of land holdings in Brazil has increased greatly over the last few decades, with 70 percent of Brazilian farmers now landless and 81 percent of the farmland held by just 4.5 percent of the population (Hildyard, 1990). They found that human-induced climate change has caused a long-term change in the winds, and that as a result, warm ocean conditions have gradually become more prevalent. Bias toward growth and a hubristic disregard for physical limits, others have argued, are today the principal driving forces (e.g., Boulding, 1971, 1974; Daly, 1977). The net effect on energy intensity is still unknown. The upward trend in CFC production was also aided by the development of still other uses for CFCs: as nontoxic propellants in aerosol sprays and later, in the 1960s and 1970s, as solvents in the manufacture of integrated circuits. The damage is now so extensive and severe as to preclude regeneration to original cover without special measures that are only now being developed (Uhl et al., 1989). If the trunk of the tree represents the greenhouse gas-producing effect of all human activities, the limbs can represent the contributing greenhouse gases. Only a handful of empirical studies have examined the effects of population growth on the environment, and many of these are quite dated [e.g., Ridker, 1972b; Fisher and Potter, 1971). In Pará state, for instance, small farms cultivate an average of 50 percent of their area, while farms of over 1,000 ha cultivate only 26 percent (Hecht, 1981). Price Structure Policy sets coal prices for the state-owned mines artificially low, below the cost of production. Thus, the current pattern of extensive development, by displacing indigenous peoples and small-scale extractors, has removed a brake on deforestation and threatens a store of valuable knowledge about the intensive management of forest species for human consumption. Under what conditions do capitalist actors adopt practices of natural resource use or waste management that preserve environmental values? But mass migration did not occur in the northeast, and much of the area was abandoned to pasture. An additive model of these relationships is not viable, so the study of single causal factors in isolation is misleading. We conclude by stating some principles that follow from current knowledge and some implications for research. Finally, much deforestation is a by-product of industries such as mining, which not only destroys the forest at the industrial site, but may also use large numbers of trees for fuel. Residential coal stoves often have only 10-18 percent efficiency (Xi et al., 1989). mans is impossible to estimate in advance but, whatever its size, it is likely to be irreversible. Given these institutional conditions and the presence of abundant, accessible, and relatively cheap land in the Amazon, individual actors made rational economic choices that furthered their own best interests and helped create a system with its own economic and social momentum that continues deforestation even after state incentives have been removed. There they encountered the ozone layer, the thin belt of unstable tripartite oxygen molecules that filters out much of the sun's ultraviolet radiation and protects living organisms on the surface of the planet from the effects of that radiation. It seems that past some point, consumers use their economic resources to purchase well-being that is decreasingly dependent on material goods (see Inglehart, 1990). Others have suggested that these population increases are also associated with increasing global environmental change (Whitmore et al., 1991). 4. As we note in Chapter 7, this experience provides a useful model for advancing interdisciplinary social science research on global change. But ammonia (like other refrigerant gases such as sulfur dioxide and methyl chloride) had serious problems. Source: Shine et al. Direct challenges to these analyses are few, in part because they are compatible with analyses that emphasize the role of other driving forces. Third, goods that have no price, whose production is highly uncertain, or that are valued by nonparticipants in markets, for instance, the survival of nonhuman species, tend to be systematically undervalued in markets (e.g., Krutilla and Fisher, 1975). Again, there are many ways to ana-. emissions may change considerably if centrally planned economies become extinct. They also show that studies of driving forces and their relationships have been and can be done (National Research Council, 1990b; Turner, 1989). Because species diversity in Amazonia is directly related to levels of rainfall, lower rainfall in any region can be expected to reduce the number of species in that region. To understand the nature of these interactive relationships, it is important to compare different places and to follow the relationships over time. Ready to take your reading offline? Deforestation reduces diversity at all three levels. The rapid increase in Chinese coal consumption—from 62 million tons (Mt) in 1952 to 812 Mt in 1985—can be traced to industrialization, electrification, and population growth (Xi et al., 1989). This section distills some general conclusions or principles from the chapter and outlines their implications for setting research priorities. Species may be eliminated because of ecosystem simplification, as when removal of a single species eliminates the many species dependent for their existence on the local population of that species,1 or when cutting eliminates the cool, moist, windless microclimates of the forest interior that many species require. There are fossil plant-leaves from 55m years ago that have a microscopic structure which can be accurately reproduced in modern plants only when grown in a carbon-dioxide-rich atmosphere. Nonflammable, nonexplosive, noncorrosive, and nontoxic, the various forms of Freon gas seemed the perfect technical solution to a host of environmental and safety problems. If different researchers using different methods nevertheless come up with more or less the same answer, perhaps they are onto something. The important proximate human causes of global change are those with enough impact to significantly alter properties of the global environment of potential concern to humanity. There is considerable debate in the economic literature on how to measure welfare, focused on such questions as how to count things people value that are not traded in markets and whether expenditures for pollution control should be considered an addition or a subtraction from net welfare (e.g., Daly, 1986; Repetto et al., 1989). A quick fix for the effects of CFCs on the ozone layer might encourage the spread of the American pattern of energy-intensive settlement. Experience so far indicates that consumption patterns shift toward services as per capita income rises, suggesting that the process of growth itself may induce less than proportional increases in environmental stress. Tree-structured accounting is also limited in that it can evaluate human activities against only some criteria of importance (such as high and widespread impact), but not others (such as irreversibility). 4. For studies below the global level, priorities should be set on the basis of the potential to gain understanding of the global picture or to make significant responses to global change. The Command Economy The practice of government-dictated production, combined with the price structure, allows highly inefficient enterprises to continue operating despite financial losses. It is not identical to the "global warming potential" of gases emitted by human activity, a property that integrates the effects of gas emissions over future time. Human activities in distant areas of the planet had brought a sudden and potentially devastating change to the Antarctic and its ecosystems, a change that did not bode well for the ozone layer in other parts of the planet (Stolarski, 1988). Enough is known to identify some of the critical determinants of Chinese energy intensity, but not to quantify their effects or specify their interactions. Some species, such as rosewood, are selectively eliminated from the forest for economic reasons. The diminishing returns can be postponed by improved technology, but technology also interacts with the environment. Better studies focused on the driving forces and their connections to the proximate causes are necessary for effective integrative modeling of the human causes of global change. The key analytic questions concern the conditions under which a given amount of present or future economic growth produces larger or smaller impacts on the environment. To what extent is such variation dependent on the political structure of the state, national political culture, level of centralization of decision-making power, and other variables at the national level? This dependency model highlights the important role of foreign capital and extractive industries, but because it pits a monolithic global capitalism against a similarly undifferentiated and largely passive Third World, it cannot account for the historical specificity of particular cases or the variability in internal dynamics as systems adapt (Wolf, 1982). There is sometimes reluctance to take experts' words for anything and so we would like to be shown the evidence. Three-quarters of the Chinese emissions come from burning coal. In this view, technology as currently developed is a Faustian bargain, trading current gain against future survival (e.g., Commoner, 1970, 1972, 1977). Linking time scales is also critical to the global change agenda. When such a variable has a high impact, it is worth considering for inclusion in models of the relevant proximal causes of global change. For times: fossil-fuel energy use increased almost in lockstep with economic activity in industrialized countries for many years; since the 1970s, the correlation has been nearly zero (see Chapter 4). Quantitative models will be of limited predictive value, especially for the decades-to-centuries time frame, without better knowledge of the processes. Of all the possible driving forces of environmental change, none has such a rich history in Western thinking as population growth. the world. Their investment in ice storage technology contributed to dramatic shifts in the American food supply and was soon affecting foods other than meat. Countries such as the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Australia had such policies during rapid development phases, and other countries have followed the example. The inexorable destruction of an exhaustible resource that is openly available to all, what Hardin (1968) called the "tragedy of the commons," is, at a psychological level, a logical outcome of this sort of thinking. Ice is melting worldwide, especially at the Earth’s poles. This includes mountain glaciers, ice sheets … Burning fossil fuels– Fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal contain carbon dioxide t… Some researchers argue that a secular change in basic values is occurring in many modern societies. Another concern is that some important processes, such as ice-sheet disintegration, only affect climate very slowly. Register for a free account to start saving and receiving special member only perks. The social sciences have a long tradition of comparative research and can usefully apply the conceptual and methodological tools they have developed to the problem of global environmental change. Accountings such as the one represented in Figure 3-1 can help guide the research agenda for the human causes of global change. Not much effect, that is, until 1985 and the discovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica. Within two years' time, the scientific community agreed that CFCs were the most likely culprit; officials at DuPont, which produced 25 percent of the world's CFCs, declared the company's intent to phase out CFC production over the next decade and a half; and an international protocol was signed at Montreal, in which signatory countries declared their intention to cut CFC production and consumption in half by the end of the century (Benedick, 1989a, b; U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, 1988; Haas, 1989). Under these conditions the relative gap between per capita income in developing and developed countries would narrow, but the absolute gap would increase substantially. The work can be eased by using the impact criterion: analysts might reasonably choose to move from trunk to limb to branch to twig only until the contribution falls below a preset level of impact for the time period of concern. An alternative development model generates increased production per unit of land by agricultural intensification rather than by extensive land uses such as shifting agriculture or ranching (Boserup, 1990; Turner et al., n.d.). Cultural values, short-sightedness, and self-interestedness can both cause and respond to other major social forces, such as political-economic institutions and technological change. In the first, technology's contribution to environmental change is deemed relatively unimportant (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1972). Mahar reports that a farm laborer can "net the equivalent of $9,000 from clearing 14 ha of forest, planting pasture, and a few crops for a few years, and selling the 'improvements' to a new settler" (1988:38). Physical scientists know which halocarbons are long-lived catalysts for the destruction of stratospheric ozone and which ones are quickly destroyed; social scientists do not yet know much about which social changes catalyze other changes or about which ones are relatively irreversible. Where controversy tends to arise is over the relative primacy and hierarchical ordering of attitudes and beliefs relative to other causal factors, especially the degree to which beliefs and attitudes can be given causal force in their own right or are products of more fundamental forces. Another is the politics of change. All rights reserved. Individuals not involved in buying or selling a good or service may nevertheless be affected by the transaction, for ex-. Their components but mass migration did not occur in the West, have also been called into (... Many times their number of local or regional data linked to the previous chapter or skip to the study earth! 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